Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
Closed April 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$84K
Liquidity
$25K
Bid / Ask
33% / 35%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
38%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Warriors (-2.5)" at 38% YES / 62% NO. In the last 24 hours, $84K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 38%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Warriors (-2.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 38%, NO 62%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1930195
This event has 6 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 46%, Spread: Warriors (-2.5): 38%, Spread: Warriors (-3.5): 31%.
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
50%
Apr 9, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
47%
Apr 10, 2026
Current
46% YES (-0.5pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.8%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this