ForecastMind
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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
Share on X

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

56%YES
45%NO

Volume 24h

$594K

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

57% / 58%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

57%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-6.5)" at 56% YES / 44% NO. In the last 24 hours, $594K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 57%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Hawks (-6.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 56%, NO 44%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1933250

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. Spread: Hawks (-6.5): 56%, Spread: Hawks (-7.5): 53%, 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 49%.

Spread: Hawks (-6.5)

56%
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
53%
1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
49%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
48%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 10, 2026

Current

56% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 10, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 56%99%
Buy YES@ 56¢
Edge

+0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.1%
½ Kelly0.6%
Buy NO@ 44¢

-1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.9% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this