Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
Closed April 10, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$271K
Liquidity
$15K
Bid / Ask
53% / 55%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
50%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Hawks (-8.5)" at 50% YES / 50% NO. In the last 24 hours, $271K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 50%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "Spread: Hawks (-8.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 50%, NO 50%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1934622
This event has 4 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 63%, Spread: Hawks (-7.5): 56%, Spread: Hawks (-6.5): 56%.
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
48% YES
Apr 10, 2026
Current
49% YES (+1.0pp recent)
Apr 10, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.0%
EV per $ wagered
-1.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this