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Market Closed

This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)
Share on X

1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

Closed April 10, 2026

Polymarket Price

74%YES
26%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$13

Bid / Ask

53% / 65%

Spread

12.00pp

Expert Signal

74%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)" at 74% YES / 26% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 74%. The bid-ask spread is 12.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 10, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 74%, NO 26%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1934619

Outcome Markets4 markets

This event has 4 active outcome markets. 1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5): 74%, Spread: Hawks (-7.5): 56%, Spread: Hawks (-6.5): 56%.

1H Spread: Hawks (-4.5)

74%
Spread: Hawks (-7.5)
56%
Spread: Hawks (-6.5)
56%
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)
50%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 74%99%
Buy YES@ 74¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 26¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this