Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
Closed April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$9K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
76% / 79%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
77%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-3.5)" at 77% YES / 23% NO. In the last 24 hours, $9K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 77%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Spread: Magic (-3.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 77%, NO 23%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1944200
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
51% YES
Apr 11, 2026
Dropped below 50% — now favored NO
12%
Apr 13, 2026
Biggest move: -73.5pp
85% → 12%
Apr 13, 2026
Peak probability
85% YES — highest in period
Apr 12, 2026
Current
0% YES (-11.5pp recent)
Apr 13, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this