Markets/Spread: Magic (-11.5)

Spread: Magic (-11.5)

Data as of Apr 12, 2026, 06:23 PM UTC

Closes April 12, 2026

Polymarket Price

55%YES

45%NO

Volume 24h

$8K

Liquidity

$66K

Bid / Ask

54% / 56%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

55%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-11.5)" at 55% YES / 45% NO. In the last 24 hours, $8K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 55%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Magic (-11.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 55%, NO 45%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1951817

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.

79%

77%

76%

63%

61%

Spread: Magic (-10.5)

57%

Spread: Magic (-11.5)

55%

Spread: Magic (-12.5)

52%

1H Spread: Magic (-7.5)

51%

Spread: Magic (-13.5)

48%

Topic Intelligence

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Apr 12, 2026

Current

55% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Apr 12, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 55%99%

Buy YES@ 55¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 45¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

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