Spread: Magic (-4.5)
Closes April 12, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$744
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
75% / 76%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
76%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Spread: Magic (-4.5)" at 76% YES / 24% NO. In the last 24 hours, $744 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 76%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-12). "Spread: Magic (-4.5)." Prediction market snapshot: YES 76%, NO 24%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1947525
This event has 10 active outcome markets. Spread: Magic (-2.5): 79%, Spread: Magic (-3.5): 77%, Spread: Magic (-4.5): 76%.
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-2.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this