Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?

Data as of Apr 14, 2026, 01:53 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

52%FIS

−2ppvs market 54%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 54% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.1% ↓, VIX -2.8% ↓, Gold +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -0.1% ↓, VIX -2.8% ↓, Gold +0.2% ↑

-2.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Pre-computed · refreshes every 6h10:11 AM

Polymarket Price

54%YES

47%NO

Volume 24h

$171K

Liquidity

$20K

Bid / Ask

58% / 60%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

60%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?" at 54% YES / 46% NO. In the last 24 hours, $171K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 60%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 54%, NO 46%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1959318

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 90%, April 22, 2026: 82%, April 21, 2026: 69%.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

90%