Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
Closes April 21, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.3pp below current market price; market at 8% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.6% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$21K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
7% / 9%
Spread
2.00pp
Expert Signal
8%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?" at 8% YES / 92% NO. In the last 24 hours, $21K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 8%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 21, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-11). "Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 8%, NO 92%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1918790
This event has 20 active outcome markets. June 15, 2026: 100%, June 30, 2026: 99%, May 31, 2026: 99%.
US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026?
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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