JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?
Closes April 12, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 89% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$8K
Bid / Ask
85% / 93%
Spread
7.90pp
Expert Signal
89%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?" at 89% YES / 11% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 89%. The bid-ask spread is 7.90 percentage points. The market closes on April 12, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 89%, NO 11%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937572
This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 98%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 97%.
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 12?
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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