Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 09:43 PM UTC

Closes April 11, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

89%FIS

−1ppvs market 91%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.3pp below current market price; market at 90% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -1.5% ↓, VIX +0.6% ↑, Gold -0.1% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -1.5% ↓, VIX +0.6% ↑, Gold -0.1% ↓

-1.8pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute08:03 PM

Polymarket Price

92%YES

9%NO

Volume 24h

$10K

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

88% / 89%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

90%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-0.3pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?" at 92% YES / 8% NO. In the last 24 hours, $10K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 90%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 11, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 11?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 92%, NO 8%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937571

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 99%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 95%.

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

99%

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

98%

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15?

95%

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?

94%