Markets/JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?

Data as of Apr 10, 2026, 09:43 PM UTC

Closes April 13, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Medium confidence · 2 signals

88%FIS

−3ppvs market 91%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 91% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓.

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -2.2% ↓, VIX -1.3% ↓, Gold -0.4% ↓

-5.2pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute09:43 PM

Polymarket Price

91%YES

9%NO

Volume 24h

$798

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

88% / 94%

Spread

5.50pp

Expert Signal

91%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?" at 91% YES / 9% NO. In the last 24 hours, $798 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 91%. The bid-ask spread is 5.50 percentage points. The market closes on April 13, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-10). "JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 91%, NO 9%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1937573

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30: 98%, April 30, 2026: 98%, April 15: 97%.

JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

98%

US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?

98%