Markets/US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?

Data as of Apr 14, 2026, 01:57 PM UTC

Closes April 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score

Low confidence · 2 signals

80%FIS

−2ppvs market 82%

overpriced

ForecastMind sees this -1.8pp below current market price; market at 82% may be overpriced with macro signals showing Oil -0.5% ↓, VIX -4.2% ↓, Gold +0.3% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Signal breakdown

MacroOil -0.5% ↓, VIX -4.2% ↓, Gold +0.3% ↑

-2.9pp

HistoryISR positive AGR → -1.0pp avg (n=64) [recent event]

-1.0pp

Live compute10:23 AM

Polymarket Price

78%YES

22%NO

Volume 24h

$50K

Liquidity

$22K

Bid / Ask

81% / 83%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

82%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?" at 78% YES / 22% NO. In the last 24 hours, $50K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 82%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on April 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 78%, NO 22%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1959319

Outcome Markets10 markets

This event has 10 active outcome markets. April 30, 2026: 90%, April 22, 2026: 78%, April 21, 2026: 69%.