Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14?
Closes April 15, 2026
Markets appear correctly priced with macro signals showing BTC -0.2% ↓, ETH -2.2% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$54K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
1% / 3%
Spread
2.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14?" at 0% YES / 100% NO. In the last 24 hours, $54K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 2.20 percentage points. The market closes on April 15, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 0%, NO 100%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1976979
This event has 27 active outcome markets. December 31, 2026: 80%, Solana reach $90 in April?: 56%, Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19?: 30%.
Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 14?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
10% YES
Apr 14, 2026
Biggest move: +19.0pp
8% → 27%
Apr 14, 2026
Peak probability
27% YES — highest in period
Apr 14, 2026
Current
2% YES (-3.6pp recent)
Apr 14, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this