Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
Closes June 30, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 12% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$216
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
10% / 15%
Spread
4.90pp
Expert Signal
12%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 12% YES / 88% NO. In the last 24 hours, $216 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 4.90 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 12%, NO 88%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825853
This event has 15 active outcome markets. Victor Marx: 48%, Barbara Kirkmeyer: 36%, Scott Bottoms: 12%.
Scott Bottoms win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this