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Markets/Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 30, 2026

ForecastMind Intelligence Score
Low confidence
34%FIS
vs
36%Market
overpriced 1.5pp
2 signals
Key Drivers
MacroVIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑
-2.2pp43%
HistoryUSA very_negative CVL → -1.0pp avg (n=74) [recent event]
n=74 historical instances
-1.0pp57%

ForecastMind sees this -1.5pp below current market price; market at 36% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -2.7% ↓, S&P +1.0% ↑, DXY +0.2% ↑ (low confidence — limited signal data).

Live compute11:56 AM

Polymarket Price

36%YES
65%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$15K

Bid / Ask

33% / 38%

Spread

5.00pp

Expert Signal

36%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?" at 36% YES / 64% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 36%. The bid-ask spread is 5.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 30, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-04-05). "Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 36%, NO 64%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/825856

Cross-Venue Intelligence2 venues
VenueYES %vs Poly
Polymarket36%anchor
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✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 36%99%
Buy YES@ 36¢
Edge

+1.4%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%
½ Kelly0.4%
Buy NO@ 65¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+1.4% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this