Markets/Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 30, 2026, 07:38 PM UTC

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

2%YES

98%NO

Volume 24h

$950

Liquidity

$4K

Bid / Ask

0% / 4%

Spread

3.10pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+2.6pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

Event Distribution

Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican…

2026

Full event →

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

53%

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

32%

the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary

8 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 2%99%

Buy YES@ 2¢

Edge

+2.6%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.1%

½ Kelly0.0%

Buy NO@ 98¢

-0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.6% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.1%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $950 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 3.10 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907350

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.