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Markets/Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?
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Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

5%YES
95%NO

Volume 24h

$5K

Liquidity

$13K

Bid / Ask

4% / 6%

Spread

2.00pp

Expert Signal

5%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

Price History

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Price History

+0.0pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 30, 2026

Current

5% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 30, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 5%99%
Buy YES@ 5¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 95¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 5% YES / 95% NO. In the last 24 hours, $5K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 2.00 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Christopher Bouchat win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 5%, NO 95%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907354

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.