Markets/Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?

Data as of Mar 27, 2026, 05:07 AM UTC

Closes June 23, 2026

Polymarket Price

4%YES

96%NO

Volume 24h

$40K

Liquidity

$8K

Bid / Ask

3% / 5%

Spread

1.80pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

5% YES

Mar 27, 2026

Current

5% YES (-0.8pp recent)

Mar 27, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 4%99%

Buy YES@ 4¢

-7.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 96¢

Edge

+0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly7.0%

½ Kelly3.5%

Buy NO—+0.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 7.0%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $40K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 5%. The bid-ask spread is 1.80 percentage points. The market closes on June 23, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-27). "Will Larry Hogan win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/907356

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