Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$431K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
18% / 19%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
18%
Bayesian YES estimate
The Full Picture
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Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
2026
19 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
Export CSVPrice History
Key Moments
First recorded
26% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Trough probability
0% YES — lowest in period
Mar 25, 2026
Crossed 50% — now favored YES
50%
Mar 16, 2026
Biggest move: +28.5pp
22% → 50%
Mar 16, 2026
Peak probability
50% YES — highest in period
Mar 16, 2026
Current
18% YES (-1.1pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-1.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?" at 18% YES / 82% NO. In the last 24 hours, $431K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 18%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 18%, NO 82%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678746
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.