Markets/Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 08:30 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

72%YES

28%NO

Volume 24h

$217

Liquidity

$9K

Bid / Ask

71% / 72%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

72%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 72%99%

Buy YES@ 72¢

Edge

+0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly1.8%

½ Kelly0.9%

Buy NO@ 29¢

-1.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+0.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 1.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?" at 72% YES / 28% NO. In the last 24 hours, $217 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 72%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 72%, NO 28%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1342509

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