Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?
Closes December 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$9K
Bid / Ask
21% / 23%
Spread
1.90pp
Expert Signal
22%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
2026
17 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
22% YES
Mar 3, 2026
Trough probability
9% YES — lowest in period
Mar 18, 2026
Biggest move: +10.2pp
9% → 19%
Mar 18, 2026
Current
13% YES (+0.4pp recent)
Mar 19, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.7%
EV per $ wagered
-0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 22%. The bid-ask spread is 1.90 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/678748
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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