Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$191K
Liquidity
$13K
Bid / Ask
8% / 9%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
9%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential…
2026
10 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 9% YES / 91% NO. In the last 24 hours, $191K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-29). "Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 9%, NO 91%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1366014
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