Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Closes October 4, 2026
⬡ Cross-venue entityPolymarket Price
Volume 24h
$7K
Liquidity
$173K
Bid / Ask
39% / 39%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
39%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential…
2026
11 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
33% YES
Feb 28, 2026
Peak probability
40% YES — highest in period
Mar 20, 2026
Current
39% YES (-0.1pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-0.3%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $7K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on October 4, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/601826
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Venue Divergence
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