Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
March 2026
Consensus Probability
7%
Weak5%
Polymarket10% avg · 5 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 11% | $558K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | 0% | $317K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | 8% | $28K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | 5% | $21K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 25% | $12K | standalone |