Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Consensus Probability
14%
Weak24%
Polymarket10% avg · 9 markets
Kalshi9% avg · 12 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 1% | $15K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 0% | $9K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 43% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 3% | $2K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 2% | $1K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 0% | $832 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 3% | $825 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 26% | $510 | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 15% | $112 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 19% | $8K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yoav Gallant be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 4% | $2K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 3% | $956 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 4% | $2K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 11% | $2K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 13% | $4K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 17% | $6K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 3% | $5K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 1% | $1K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 2% | $429 | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 2% | $1K | standalone |
| Kalshi | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 35% | $19K | standalone |