Will Trump visit China by May 31?
April
Consensus Probability
16%
Weak5%
Polymarket40% avg · 4 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | 1% | $189K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | 23% | $152K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | 64% | $18K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Trump visit China by June 30? | 74% | $15K | standalone |