Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
March
Consensus Probability
23%
Moderate47%
Polymarket25% avg · 2 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. Some spread between venues — treat as directional signal.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 14% | $183K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | 36% | $146K | standalone |