Will France strike Iran by April 30?
March
Consensus Probability
4%
Weak27%
Polymarket3% avg · 5 markets
Confidence is based on agreement between venues, number of confirming markets, and available liquidity. High disagreement or thin markets — interpret with caution.
Contributing Markets
| Venue | Market | YES | Volume | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Will France strike Iran by April 30? | 5% | $145K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31? | 1% | $48K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will France strike Iran by March 31? | 1% | $15K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | 8% | $3K | standalone |
| Polymarket | Will Iran strike France by March 31? | 1% | $1K | standalone |