Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Iran strike France by March 31?
Closed March 7, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$4K
Bid / Ask
1% / 2%
Spread
1.00pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will France strike Iran by April 30?
March
5 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
2% YES
Mar 22, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.1pp recent)
Mar 30, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-16.7%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iran strike France by March 31?" at 1% YES / 99% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 7, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-30). "Will Iran strike France by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 1%, NO 99%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1629853
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Venue Divergence
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Event Cluster
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