Will France strike Iran by March 31?
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$16K
Liquidity
$19K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.20pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
March
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
14% YES
Mar 1, 2026
Trough probability
1% YES — lowest in period
Mar 24, 2026
Biggest move: -12.8pp
28% → 15%
Mar 2, 2026
Peak probability
28% YES — highest in period
Mar 2, 2026
Current
1% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 24, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+25.0%
EV per $ wagered
-0.4%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will France strike Iran by March 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $16K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will France strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1472012
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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