Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?
Closes March 31, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$86K
Liquidity
$59K
Bid / Ask
2% / 2%
Spread
0.10pp
Expert Signal
2%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will France strike Iran by March 31?
March
3 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
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EV per $ wagered
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EV per $ wagered
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Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?" at 2% YES / 98% NO. In the last 24 hours, $86K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 2%. The bid-ask spread is 0.10 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 2%, NO 98%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1385748
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