PolymarketManifold
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2 venues tracked+0.6pp in 24h
18
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
Will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap9/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity7/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum1/15
Total Intel Score18/100
Linked News
Canonical ID: 4d6de3e8-26b3-4bdc-b0f5-b32e6dd88cfd
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.