Polymarket
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
1 venues tracked-3.5pp in 24h
27
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap0/30
Multi-venue0/20
News Velocity20/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum7/15
Total Intel Score27/100
Linked News
Middle East crisis live: Trump considering ‘winding down’ war as US eases sanctions on Iranian oil; Israel launches retaliatory strikes
The Guardian16h ago
Switzerland halts weapons exports to US due to Iran war, citing neutrality
Reddit WorldNews19h ago
Donald Trump ‘very surprised’ Australia declined to send troops to strait of Hormuz amid fuel crisis
The Guardian20h ago
Heritage president: MAGA tensions over Iran war ‘good’
The Hill21h ago
Canonical ID: ad41d999-e1df-4544-aea9-d8f2c2e6e9e0
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.