PolymarketManifold
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
2 venues tracked
6
Live Venue Consensus
VenueYES %vs Poly
Manifold
USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?
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Weights: Metaculus 1.5× · Kalshi 1.2× · PredictIt 0.9× · Manifold 0.8× (accuracy-based)
Signal Strength
Venue Gap0/30
Multi-venue6/20
News Velocity0/20
Related Events0/15
Price Momentum0/15
Total Intel Score6/100
Canonical ID: c431cb13-ad74-4fb7-b7b2-dba2c627219e
Entity links auto-generated via Jaccard + embedding similarity matching pipeline.