Markets/Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 07:40 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

47%YES

54%NO

Volume 24h

$1K

Liquidity

$11K

Bid / Ask

45% / 48%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

47%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+17.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

28% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

14% YES — lowest in period

Mar 9, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

51%

Mar 16, 2026

Crossed 50% — now favored YES

50%

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 20, 2026

Biggest move: +30.0pp

41% → 71%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

71% YES — highest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Current

46% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 47%99%

Buy YES@ 47¢

Edge

+1.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO@ 53¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?" at 47% YES / 53% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 47%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 47%, NO 53%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1004798