Markets/Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 02:02 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2027

Polymarket Price

39%YES

62%NO

Volume 24h

$95

Liquidity

$3K

Bid / Ask

38% / 39%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

39%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-13.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

56% YES

Feb 28, 2026

Trough probability

21% YES — lowest in period

Mar 15, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

48%

Mar 4, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

44%

Mar 9, 2026

Biggest move: -26.0pp

48% → 22%

Mar 13, 2026

Peak probability

66% YES — highest in period

Mar 4, 2026

Current

43% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 21, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 39%99%

Buy YES@ 39¢

Edge

+1.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO@ 62¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+1.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?" at 39% YES / 61% NO. In the last 24 hours, $95 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 39%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2027.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 39%, NO 61%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1021152