Markets/Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 04:38 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

22%YES

79%NO

Volume 24h

$562

Liquidity

$6K

Bid / Ask

20% / 23%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

21%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market-1.4pp

confidence50%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+11.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 3, 2026

Biggest move: +12.0pp

13% → 25%

Mar 17, 2026

Peak probability

27% YES — highest in period

Mar 17, 2026

Current

24% YES (-0.5pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 22%99%

Buy YES@ 22¢

Edge

+2.3%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 79¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.3% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026" at 22% YES / 78% NO. In the last 24 hours, $562 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 21%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026." Prediction market snapshot: YES 22%, NO 78%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1089012