Markets/Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Data as of Mar 21, 2026, 07:03 AM UTC

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

11%YES

89%NO

Volume 24h

$737

Liquidity

$7K

Bid / Ask

10% / 13%

Spread

2.70pp

Expert Signal

12%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence0%

methodmarket

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

+0.6pp

Key Moments

First recorded

13% YES

Mar 17, 2026

Current

13% YES (-0.1pp recent)

Mar 18, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 11%99%

Buy YES@ 11¢

-0.9%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 89¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.9%

½ Kelly0.5%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.9%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026" at 11% YES / 89% NO. In the last 24 hours, $737 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 12%. The bid-ask spread is 2.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026." Prediction market snapshot: YES 11%, NO 89%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1089013