Markets/Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Data as of Mar 24, 2026, 08:19 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

15%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$2K

Liquidity

$45K

Bid / Ask

14% / 14%

Spread

0.20pp

Expert Signal

15%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

2026

Full event →

the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

63%

the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

14%

the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

14 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

+0.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

12% YES

Feb 22, 2026

Biggest move: -8.6pp

19% → 10%

Mar 15, 2026

Peak probability

19% YES — highest in period

Mar 14, 2026

Current

13% YES (+0.1pp recent)

Mar 23, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 15%99%

Buy YES@ 15¢

-0.3%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 85¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.3%

½ Kelly0.2%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.3%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?" at 15% YES / 85% NO. In the last 24 hours, $2K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 15%. The bid-ask spread is 0.20 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-24). "Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 15%, NO 85%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1105744