Markets/Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Data as of Mar 23, 2026, 10:46 AM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

25%YES

76%NO

Volume 24h

$17K

Liquidity

$147K

Bid / Ask

24% / 25%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

25%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-35.5pp

Key Moments

First recorded

64% YES

Mar 18, 2026

Trough probability

26% YES — lowest in period

Mar 18, 2026

Dropped below 50% — now favored NO

30%

Mar 18, 2026

Biggest move: -34.5pp

64% → 30%

Mar 18, 2026

Current

28% YES (+0.0pp recent)

Mar 19, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 25%99%

Buy YES@ 25¢

Edge

+2.0%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.7%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 76¢

-0.7%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+2.0% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.7%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?" at 25% YES / 75% NO. In the last 24 hours, $17K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 25%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 25%, NO 75%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1107878

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