Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
Closes March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$439
Liquidity
$7K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
2026
36 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
3% YES
Mar 17, 2026
Current
4% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 20, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-3.6%
EV per $ wagered
+0.2%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $439 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1122883
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Venue Divergence
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