Market Closed
This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.
Will Franz Tata García win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?
Closed March 22, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$217
Liquidity
$432
Bid / Ask
0% / 12%
Spread
11.70pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.8%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
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Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will Franz Tata García win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $217 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 11.70 percentage points. The market closes on March 22, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Franz Tata García win the 2026 Sucre mayoral election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1123267
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