Markets/Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 11:35 PM UTC

Closes December 31, 2026

⬡ Cross-venue entity

Polymarket Price

16%YES

85%NO

Volume 24h

$25K

Liquidity

$174K

Bid / Ask

15% / 16%

Spread

1.00pp

Expert Signal

16%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 16%99%

Buy YES@ 16¢

Edge

+3.2%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%

½ Kelly0.3%

Buy NO@ 85¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES—+3.2% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?" at 16% YES / 84% NO. In the last 24 hours, $25K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 16%. The bid-ask spread is 1.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 16%, NO 84%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1126504

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