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Markets/Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
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Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?

Closes March 31, 2026

Polymarket Price

10%YES
90%NO

Volume 24h

$4K

Liquidity

$14K

Bid / Ask

7% / 10%

Spread

3.00pp

Expert Signal

9%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

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Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 10%99%
Buy YES@ 10¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 90¢

+0.0%

EV per $ wagered

Your estimate matches the market price — no edge on either side.

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?" at 10% YES / 90% NO. In the last 24 hours, $4K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 9%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on March 31, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 10%, NO 90%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1138907