Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Closes December 9, 2026
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$1K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
28% / 31%
Spread
3.00pp
Expert Signal
29%
Bayesian YES estimate
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Event Distribution
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate…
2026
15 related outcomes · highlighted = this market
Price History
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Key Moments
First recorded
28% YES
Mar 7, 2026
Biggest move: -6.0pp
33% → 27%
Mar 12, 2026
Peak probability
34% YES — highest in period
Mar 11, 2026
Current
30% YES (+0.0pp recent)
Mar 21, 2026
Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.0%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?" at 29% YES / 71% NO. In the last 24 hours, $1K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 29%. The bid-ask spread is 3.00 percentage points. The market closes on December 9, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-03-21). "Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 29%, NO 71%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1168138
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Venue Divergence
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Correlated Markets
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Event Cluster
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