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This market has resolved and is no longer trading. Prices shown are the final recorded values.

Markets/Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?
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Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?

Closed March 22, 2026

Polymarket Price

14%YES
87%NO

Volume 24h

$724

Liquidity

$301

Expert Signal

14%

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp
confidence21%
methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Event Distribution

Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial…

2026

Full event →

6 related outcomes · highlighted = this market

Price History

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Price History

No historical data yet

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

%
1%Market: YES 14%99%
Buy YES@ 14¢
Edge

+3.7%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.6%
½ Kelly0.3%
Buy NO@ 87¢

-0.6%

EV per $ wagered

Buy YES+3.7% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.6%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?" at 14% YES / 86% NO. In the last 24 hours, $724 has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 14%. The market closes on March 22, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-23). "Will Felix Patzi win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 14%, NO 86%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1228192