Markets/Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?

Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?

Data as of Mar 22, 2026, 09:12 AM UTC

Closes April 1, 2026

Polymarket Price

6%YES

94%NO

Volume 24h

$105K

Liquidity

$19K

Bid / Ask

6% / 6%

Spread

0.60pp

Expert Signal

Bayesian YES estimate

vs market+0.0pp

confidence21%

methodensemble

✦ AI Analysis

Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.

Price History

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Price History

-1.3pp

Key Moments

First recorded

7% YES

Mar 14, 2026

Biggest move: +9.4pp

7% → 16%

Mar 18, 2026

Peak probability

17% YES — highest in period

Mar 21, 2026

Current

6% YES (-2.0pp recent)

Mar 22, 2026

Order Book (YES)

Expected Value Calculator

Your probability estimate

1%Market: YES 6%99%

Buy YES@ 6¢

-0.8%

EV per $ wagered

Buy NO@ 94¢

Edge

+0.1%

EV per $ wagered

Full Kelly0.8%

½ Kelly0.4%

Buy NO—+0.1% EV per dollar wagered·Kelly 0.8%

EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.

Backtest Strategy

Entry threshold

50%

Enter when YES price ≤ this

From date

To date

Research Summary

Prediction markets currently price "Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $105K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.60 percentage points. The market closes on April 1, 2026.

Cite this snapshot

ForecastMind (2026-03-22). "Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1255891