Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -2.7pp below current market price; market at 6% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -3.7% ↓, S&P +1.1% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓.
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$6K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
6% / 7%
Spread
0.50pp
Expert Signal
6%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?" at 6% YES / 94% NO. In the last 24 hours, $6K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 6%. The bid-ask spread is 0.50 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 6%, NO 94%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283360
This event has 26 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
Synthesizes price, cross-venue gaps, Bayesian edge, and event context into a concise brief.
Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
-7.0%
EV per $ wagered
+0.5%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this