Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?
Closes November 3, 2026
ForecastMind sees this -1.9pp below current market price; market at 4% may be overpriced with macro signals showing VIX -4.0% ↓, S&P +1.2% ↑, DXY -0.2% ↓ (low confidence — limited signal data).
Signal breakdown
Polymarket Price
Volume 24h
$3K
Liquidity
$21K
Bid / Ask
4% / 4%
Spread
0.30pp
Expert Signal
4%
Bayesian YES estimate
Research Summary
Prediction markets currently price "Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?" at 4% YES / 96% NO. In the last 24 hours, $3K has been traded. A Bayesian estimate puts the probability at 4%. The bid-ask spread is 0.30 percentage points. The market closes on November 3, 2026.
Cite this snapshot
ForecastMind (2026-04-14). "Will the Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?." Prediction market snapshot: YES 4%, NO 96%. Retrieved from https://forecastmind.org/markets/1283336
This event has 31 active outcome markets. the Democratic Party: 95%, the Democratic Party: 94%, the Democratic Party: 94%.
Republican Party win the IL-03 House seat?
Topic Intelligence
✦ AI Analysis
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Price History
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Order Book (YES)
Expected Value Calculator
+1.3%
EV per $ wagered
-0.1%
EV per $ wagered
EV = return on investment if your probability is correct. Kelly = optimal bankroll fraction (½ Kelly is a common conservative choice). Fees not included.
Backtest Strategy
Enter when YES price ≤ this